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How many kills would a Kilo be expected to make?
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Kurushio



Joined: 25 Mar 2006
Posts: 14

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:29 am    Post subject: How many kills would a Kilo be expected to make? Reply with quote

...before it'd be destroyed? I'm not talking about the Russian's Kilo. The ones in Iranian and Chinese hands. And the theoretical opponent is the US Navy, obviously. So....how many? 1 kill for 1 Kilo or would the Kilo be expected to take out a whole flotilla before giving the game up?
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Bill Nichols



Joined: 14 Mar 2001
Posts: 2657

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll give the Kilo one attack, then all h*** will break out.
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Kurushio



Joined: 25 Mar 2006
Posts: 14

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the quick reply Bill. So would that be considered a success or failure for the Kilo...cost effective wise? At what point would a Kilo be considered a "good investment"? If it took out a FFG then got destroyed...is that good for the Kilo?
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Oberon



Joined: 07 Jul 2002
Posts: 1796
Location: Suffolk, UK

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Depends on the scenario, a clever captain could position his boat in a way to avoid detection and then fire a slow running torpedo and clear the datum at best speed. It's harder to do in a diesel than in a nuc I'd say but probably still possible.
However, if this is in open water, then the Kilo's dead anyway, they're primarily coastal boats, they can hide in the shallows, come out...fire...then hide again, the sonar condictions in the shallows are a little bit tougher than open water I think, so it'd be slightly easier to hide, plus you could use natural landmarks like coves and inlets, places where a nuclear boat can't go.
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TLAM Strike



Joined: 30 Apr 2002
Posts: 4866
Location: Rochester, New York

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Depends on whose commanding it. If I’m commanding trust me there going to be blood!
TLAM Strike: Mercenary Submarine Captain

But seriously a Kilo cost what 47,000,000 USD? While a FFG-7 costs only 16,000,000 USD. So nailing one FFG would not “pay for” the Kilo.
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compressioncut



Joined: 21 Jun 2003
Posts: 238
Location: Canada

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iran's Kilos aren't really expected to kill anything. Just the fact that they were out, or rumored to be out, in a threatening posture would seal the Strait of Hormuz and strangle a huge amount of oil traffic out of the Persian/Arabian Gulf. That's their job.

Chinese Kilos would probably do something similar to the Malacca Strait, Spratly Islands, etc.
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GunnersMate



Joined: 17 Feb 2006
Posts: 225
Location: Boston, MA

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the Iranians can get their Kilo's out of port that is a positive for them! Joking Laughing
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Bill Nichols



Joined: 14 Mar 2001
Posts: 2657

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GunnersMate wrote:
If the Iranians can get their Kilo's out of port that is a positive for them! Joking Laughing



Better give Iran a positive, then:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/060411/photos_wl_me_afp/a0d56651ae0c54c3e1c80b33b1d78ceb
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TLAM Strike



Joined: 30 Apr 2002
Posts: 4866
Location: Rochester, New York

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is it just me or is there a big ass dent just under her forward planes?
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JSLTIGER



Joined: 18 Jan 2004
Posts: 931
Location: Duke University, Durham, North Carolina USA

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And here I was about to say that she looked like she was in pretty decent shape...looks like its just some rust though...maybe they've fallen into a little disrepair.

Iranian XO to CO:
"Captain, we're at 15 meters, passing crush depth!"
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Henson



Joined: 22 Feb 2006
Posts: 35

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Iranians?

Zero.

We know when their XO farts in his sleep.
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Yskonyn



Joined: 18 Mar 2005
Posts: 43
Location: Netherlands

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lol! Smile
But nice that the thread started off with the assumption that the Kilo would be killed no matter what. Smile
:know:
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SeaQueen



Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 358
Location: Washington, DC

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 8:46 pm    Post subject: Re: How many kills would a Kilo be expected to make? Reply with quote

Kurushio wrote:
...before it'd be destroyed? I'm not talking about the Russian's Kilo. The ones in Iranian and Chinese hands. And the theoretical opponent is the US Navy, obviously. So....how many? 1 kill for 1 Kilo or would the Kilo be expected to take out a whole flotilla before giving the game up?


All by itself, I'm with Bill. I give the Kilo one salvo before they throw the kitchen sink at 'em. Then he might still luck out, but it'd be luck, not anything special about the Kilo.
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Camie Jarlson



Joined: 05 Apr 2006
Posts: 6
Location: In the ASTAC station

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 8:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

These Kilos are the only thing in Iran's arsenal that make me sweat. But I don't think they're nothing the USN couldn't handle. Ping
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SeaQueen



Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 358
Location: Washington, DC

PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 8:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kurushio wrote:
Thanks for the quick reply Bill. So would that be considered a success or failure for the Kilo...cost effective wise? At what point would a Kilo be considered a "good investment"? If it took out a FFG then got destroyed...is that good for the Kilo?


In general, you always want to target the biggest, most expensive units, which have the biggest impact on the outcome of the war.

Taking out an FFG wouldn't be the ideal thing to do if all you had was a kilo. That'd be the kilo losing the battle.

If you were smart, you'd sit and wait, then go for a CVN or an LHA/D. If you sank one of those, it's be like another 9/11. Imagine 3-5000 Marines and sailors dead in one day. Failing that, the next best thing to go for would be logistics ships and small gators. If a kilo sank any of those, the kilo commander would probably be very happy.

This kind of marginal utility question really depends a lot on the tactics one might expect any of these nations might use. You'd probably best ask a Chinese or Iranian analyst for their thoughts on it.
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